Theory Of Change

The goal of every social intervention is to improve some developmental outcome. A theory of change is the causal path from inputs to outcomes.

For instance, let's assume the intervention is to give farmers access to better and timely advice which should improve farm yields. The theory of change from advice to yield improvement could be:

1. Context-aware advice will be made available for farmers

2. Farmers will access the advice

3. The advice will influence farmer behaviour

4. Farm yields will improve

At this point, its most important to determine "who" will be targeted by your intervention. In the example above, it's a farmer. How the intervention will be delivered, comes next.

What is the theory of change for your intervention?

Describe the the chain of events from inputs to outcomes. The chain can be longer than four steps!

Metrics

After you describe the chain of events, you have to define how you will measure progress at each step/level so that you can identify what is going well, and what isn't. This will help ensure that the right inputs / intervention will eventully result in the right outcomes.

For instance, the farmer advice itervention could be measured at each step as such:

	Level	Metrics
1	Context-aware advice will be made available for farmers	Advice accuracy Relevance
2	Farmers will access the advice	Questions asked Conversation length
3	The advice will influence farmer behaviour	Practices improved Change in farming inputs
4	Farm yields will improve	Crop cut

How would you measure progress at each step for your intervention?

List metrics that you can objectively measure and track over time. The higher-level metrics should align with your business/organization goals so progress will be meaningful.

With the theory of change and metrics to track progress along the way defined, you can now plan how the intervention will be delivered.